Thursday, March 22, 2007

Poker Strategy - Playing When Tired

article by Ashley Adams

I've played poker of every sort, including stud well into the night and early morning. I've observed friends and foe alike at the poker table at every hour of the day and night. Without a doubt, from my many observations, the greatest drain on the game of the otherwise solid player is fatigue. Here's how it generally works. I'll use my otherwise successful poker friend Jose as an example.

He and I drive down from Boston to Ledyard Connecticut to play at Foxwoods Resort Casino. It's about a two hour trip - when you account for parking and walking to the poker room. Jim waits for twenty or thirty minutes for a table. Invariably, the game is good. There are many loose passive players at Foxwoods. His tight/aggressive style is usually successful. So he wins a few hundred dollars in his first few hours of play. But as the night wears on, fatigue settles in. He becomes less attentive. He calls when he should fold and calls when he should raise. He loses a few hands in a row and fails to win what he should win on a few hands that he wins. His winnings sink and he is now behind. He is tired, as evidenced by the increasing passivity in his game.

But now he is stuck and so is determined to stay until he is at least even. He must get back to even he tells himself - tired though he is. This becomes his mantra - "get to even - get to even". But his play deteriorates as he gets more and more tired. He is in this zone of inattention - waiting for a monster hand to pull him out of the red - failing to play the same tight/aggressive game that brought him his winnings in the first place. He continues to sink into the red, hour after hour - unable to see his play deteriorate. Finally, when he is completely exhausted and severely stuck he gets up, depressed and wasted - financially and physically.

This happens to many, many players in card rooms all over the United States. It happens because the very weariness that sabotages the poker play of the otherwise winning player also inhibits his ability to see what is happening to his own play. It is like drinking and driving. The same alcohol that hurts hinders your ability to drive, hinders your ability to notice that you aren't driving well. And so drunk drivers convince themselves that their driving is excellent. Some argue that one should not leave or stay in a game based on some predetermined number of hours - rather staying if the game is good or leaving if the game is bad. There is surely something to be said for this.




In general it is a good idea to be flexible enough with your schedule to stay in a good game. The problem is in judging whether a game really is good or not. How perceptive are you after you've been playing to the point of fatigue? How many times do players who are being hammered and who are playing very poorly insist to their friends that they need to stay because the game is "fantastic"? The problem is that fatigue often comes with an inflated estimate of both how good the game is and how good you are playing. The wearier you are, the better the game seems. Reversing your losses seems just around the corner - all the while you're slowly spinning down the drain. Don't let this happen.

Monday, March 19, 2007

Poker Basics - Best Five Card Hand

Q. What does 'the best five card hand' mean?

A.
In almost every form of poker, you're trying to make the best five card hand.

For example, in Hold 'em, you have pocket fives.
The board is King-King-Queen-Queen-Two

What is your hand?
You have Kings and Queens with a Five kicker (your pair of fives no longer matters, just one of the fives as your 'kicker' as it is better than the two on the board).

Seven card stud:
Say you have Ace-King-Queen-Ten-Nine-Eight-Five, all of clubs.
Your opponent has Ace-King-Queen-Ten-Nine of hearts and a Three and a Four of another suit.

Who wins?
It's a chop, as each of your best five card hands are the same: Ace-King-Queen-Ten-Nine. The fact that you have more cards to your flush than your opponent and that your 6th and 7th cards are bigger than his 6th and 7th doesn't matter.

Best five card hand.

Friday, March 16, 2007

Luck in Poker - Magic or Math?

extract from The Poker Shrink, Dr Tim Lavalli

Just how much luck is there is poker? I have stood with some of the biggest names in poker and heard them toss out numbers like 50% or 10%. More complicated answers often sound like "90% short term but only 5% long term" or "a lot more today with all the donkeys in the game". But not once have I heard any of the great players, or average players or even a single Friday night fish give the only, the one and only correct answer to this question. So what is this ultimate answer?

There is no such thing as luck in poker!

There is variability and variance but you know and I mean you know that over time it all evens out; you know you want the donkey calls all day, every day; even though a four-outer on the river will sometimes knock you out of a tournament. From a psychological perspective I want to argue that any belief in luck is detrimental to your bankroll and to your ability to play your "A" game.

Before I make my argument, let's take an example of what some call luck or bad luck and what should be correctly identified as variance. You know what variance is right?

I quote Mike Caro: "A measure of the spread of a statistical distribution about its mean or center. With respect to poker, the distribution of your results over a set of hands or sessions, or the swings in a positive or negative direction of cash flow. The greater the variance, the wilder the swings; the lower the variance, the more likely a given session results will be close to one's average result."

Now if you play perfect statistical poker then your variance will be based on the times that the "odds" or the "distribution of results" go against you. Or what some would call "bad luck" for you and "good luck" for your opponent.

Now to our example: You and one opponent are all-in on the turn, the cards are turned over, you are ahead and your opponent has four outs. What does this mean statistically?

Well in a 52 card deck you can see 8 cards (4 on the board and 2 each in 2 hands), so there are 44 unseen cards and 4 of them win for your opponent and lose for you. Statistically you will win 40 times out of 44 or 10 out of 11 times.

So no reasonable person should disagree that on average 1 time in 11 they will lose in this situation. Ask any good poker player if they are willing to risk their tournament on a 10 to 1 draw and they will say: "Yes!" Every single time. The question is simple, do you say yes to this propostion every single time? If you do then you understand variance and you reject the fuzzy logic of luck. Furthermore, you understand that sitting down at a poker table engages you in a game that is, in fact, gambling and you are doing this voluntarily.

Now the question arises: Why does a belief in luck have a negative effect on my game? The leak in your game occurs not when you are unlucky (when the statistical variance goes against you) but when you are lucky (when you are the donkey needing the 4 outer or the runner, runner diamonds). You hit your miracle card and you think: "I got so lucky!" Wrong! You got your chips in with the worst of it, you risked your tournament on a 1 in 10 play but because you think "lucky" you do not do the analysis of "Why did I do that?" You don't learn from your mistakes, instead to write off your tournament survival to "Luck."

Tell the truth, do you analyize only the hand you bust out on or do you look carefully as the hands where you got "lucky"? If we truly learn from our mistakes then improving our game must include admitting our mistakes and taking a look at them. Don't blame your losses on luck, it was variance. Don't credit your suckouts to luck but rather take a good, long hard look at how you tempted variance and learn not to do that. Get it in 10 to 1 not the other way around.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Variations of Poker

source: poker news

The worldwide obsession with poker is no accident. Many of us have been playing poker in casinos for years. Many more of us have played poker at home with our family and friends for even longer. In these types of games, players receive a full hand on the initial deal, and then discard some of those cards, which are replaced with new cards from the deck.

Stud Poker Variations
In most types of Stud games, the players are dealt an initial amount of cards, and then one more card each time a betting round is completed until seven (or five in Five Card Stud) cards are dealt. In a few variations, the players are dealt all of their cards initially, and then reveal cards at certain mandated times during the betting rounds.

Shared-Card Poker Variations
In these types of poker, players are dealt a small amount of cards individually, and then cards are placed in the center of the table that are common to all players.
Miscellaneous Poker Variations

These games are all poker games that use a standard ranking of hands, but aren't dealt as any of the variations above.

Non-Poker Variations
These games are card games that do not use the standard ranking of poker hands to determine the winner.

Friday, March 09, 2007

WSOP Academy Announces Ladies Poker Camp



Instead of sending the kids off to camp again this summer, maybe it should be your turn. No, you won't learn to pitch a tent or start a fire by rubbing two sticks together. At the World Series of Poker Camp, you will, however, learn to ramp up your poker game, just in time for the 2007 World Series of Poker. And while you won't earn a merit badge, you may be one of the ten lucky participants to walk away with a seat into the 2007 WSOP Ladies No-Limit Hold'em Event. The World Series of Poker Academy is hosting its first ever ladies-only poker camp on June 8th and 9th at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. The two-day comprehensive program will be offering a unique curriculum specifically designed for women.

WSOP bracelet winner Annie Duke will be leading the program along with former FBI agent and poker tell specialist, Joe Navarro. Navarro's regular seminars normally get rave reviews, but he's worked up some special material focusing on female-specific non-verbal behavior for the event. Along with the program's female tailored material, participants will also receive the WSOP Academy's expert No-Limit Hold'em curriculum featuring in-depth seminars, live hand demonstrations, interactive workshops and customized handbooks.

You'll get the full treatment, including hand selection, positional play, pot odds, and the importance of aggression and switching gears. The two day program will conclude with a No-Limit Hold'em tournament, where the top ten finishers will win a seat into the 2007 WSOP Ladies event. Last year's WSOP Ladies event drew a record field of 1128 women and a $1.128 million prize pool. This year's ladies event has the potential to top that. Who needs a merit badge, when you have a shot at a bracelet?